As a T206 back collector, I tend to think about cards in terms of value. Which backs are over-valued? Which are under-valued? Which cards are over-rated, and which are under-appreciated? My favorite part of collecting this set is searching for value and scarcity, especially when it is hiding in plain sight.
It can be hard to impress T206 collectors. There are hundreds of specific front/back combos that exist in quantities of less than 10 and are met with a collective yawn from collectors when they hit the market. If a Cycle 350 Shad Barry SGC 30 goes to auction, it’s likely to sell for less than $100. If a Demmitt Polar Bear SGC 30 goes to auction, it will probably sell for around $1,000. PSA and SGC have combined to grade 4 copies of the Barry Cycle 350 and 278 copies of Demmitt Polar Bear. Pretty crazy when you really look at the numbers.
Obviously the Demmitt, O’Hara, and Magie cards are more highly sought after than a random Cycle 350 with a low population. The main reason is that many set collectors feel the need to own a Magie, O’Hara and Demmitt for their sets. However, there are plenty of T206 collectors who are not necessarily attempting to complete the set. For those people, I really wonder if the massive price tags for these 3 cards makes sense.
PSA has graded 118 copies of the Magie error (which only exists with a Piedmont 150 back). SGC has graded 62 of them. So, according to the Pop Reports, there are 180 Magie errors out there. Of course there have probably been some crossovers, but there are probably some raw copies out there too.
A few days ago, this PSA 4 Sherry Magee portrait with El Principe de Gales back sold for $1,028 via PWCC Auctions. PSA and SGC have combined to grade only 11 copies of this card.
Earlier in the year, Goodwin and Co. auctioned off the above Old Mill Magee portrait in an SGC 40 holder. It sold for $2,022. PSA and SGC have graded a combined 4 copies of this card.
The Pop Report Numbers for Magee Portrait with Hindu and Sovereign 150 backs are similarly low in comparison to the iconic Magie Error:
The Old Mill above is so rare that it’s almost non-existent, and yet it sold for just 13% of the $15,340 that the PSA 3 Magie pictured at the top of this article went for. We know that there is more to value than the supply side of the equation, but I can’t help but come to the conclusion that the Magie Error is over-valued. As long as collectors continue to covet the Magie Error to the extent they have historically, prices will remain high. With more information available to us via the Pop Reports, it’s possible that prices will adjust over time to be more in line with actual scarcity (or the lack thereof).