This is a topic that I have touched on in the past, but never dedicated an entire article to. I actually intended to write a post about this over a year ago, but it took a conversation with a new friend to jog my memory.
Q: Regarding back scarcity and pricing/value. I would think supply and demand would dictate pricing more than the perceived scarcity of a particular back, but it doesn’t seem to be the case?
A couple of examples – You have a Carolina Brights Dots Miller PSA 1 priced at $769. I understand the Carolina Brights back is the 11th most difficult. But that specific card has a graded population of 15 – higher than the Clarke batting Sov 150 (25th in back difficulty) I am getting from you (I just have the PSA pop of 2) for $235. Does the relative scarcity of a particular front-back combination have a greater affect on the cards value than the perceived scarcity of the back in general? Thanks.
This is a topic that I could talk about for hours. Ever since I got into T206 back collecting, I have been interested in why the market values scarcity the way it does. Before I get into it, I think I should explain what I mean by aggregate scarcity and relative scarcity.
“Aggregate scarcity” is my definition for the overall scarcity of each back. When you look at a back scarcity ranking list, such as this one at T206resource.com, you are looking strictly at aggregate scarcity. Aggregate scarcity focuses only on the back. The back scarcity rankings on T206resource.com tell you that there are fewer Broad Leaf 460s in existence than Drums, and fewer Drums than Uzits.
I use the term “Relative scarcity” to help me dive a little deeper. It takes a couple new bits of information into consideration. First, the number of poses within a given subset. For example, the American Beauty 350 No Frame subset consists of 37 different poses. The Cycle 460 subset consists of 109 different poses. According to the back scarcity rankings, American Beauty 350 No Frame is the rarer back of the two. So overall, there are less AB350nf backs in existence than Cycle 460 backs. If you just want one copy of each back, that back scarcity list is really all the info you need. However, if you take a deeper look into things, you may start to see inefficiencies in the market. Although the AB350nf back is scarcer in an aggregate sense, every single AB350nf pose is more plentiful than the Highest Pop Cycle 460 pose.
For instance, there are 15 copies of Nap Rucker (Throwing) with an American Beauty 350 no frame back in the combined PSA and SGC Pop Reports. His teammate Kaiser Wilhelm’s Cycle 460 only has 4 graded copies between PSA and SGC. In terms of relative scarcity, the Wilhelm is in a completely different stratosphere.
The second application of the term “relative scarcity” is when dealing with a certain front/back combo that is rare in comparison to other poses with the same back. To illustrate, let’s look at Kaiser Wilhelm again. His (With Bat) poses is fairly plentiful with Old Mill back. Between PSA and SGC, there are 37 copies graded. In contrast, Wilhelm’s (Hands at Chest) pose is one of the scarcer Old Mills, with just 6 copies graded between PSA and SGC.
This is what my friend was talking about when he referenced the Sovereign 150 Fred Clarke (With Bat) he bought from me. Earlier this year, Pat Romolo and I published some pretty compelling evidence that Clarke (With Bat) was on a sheet that was short-printed with Sovereign 150 backs. That article can be read here. As far as Sovereign 150s go, Clarke (With Bat) is scarce. However, when one does come to market, it probably won’t sell for much a premium. This is due more to incomplete information than anything else however. Very few collectors realize that front/back combo is scarce, and even fewer have seen the research that Pat and I published.
On the other hand, many more collectors are aware that Carolina Brights is a rare back, and prices tend to remain strong despite the fact that some poses (like Dots Miller) have populations in the teens. Though prices don’t seem to be depressed for higher pop cards like Miller, I think you do sometimes see those cards take longer to sell because some of your prospective buyers already have a copy.
The “relatively scarce” front/back combos may fall through the cracks and sell for a depressed price if sold by someone who doesn’t realize what they have. However, once they are in the hands of a collector who recognizes their significance, they often stay there, or require an “above market” price in order to change hands.
